Saturday, February 13, 2010

I’m concerned about Greece…

and the future economic stability of the EU.

Over the past few days I’ve heard a lot of speculation regarding the financial stability of Greece and the risks posed by Greece, Portugal and Spain to the stability of the Euro.

It seems the Euro is facing its worst crisis since its creation in 1999 as it continually loses value against both the Pound and the Dollar. In response, last Thursday, a meeting of European leaders gathered in Brussels and pledged to protect the financial stability of the 16 nations within the 27 member European Union which use the Euro as currency. These leaders promised to help Greece control its growing deficit, ensuring more stringent monitoring in hopes of reassuring nervous market investors. They offered no immediate aid to the country, however, and remained silent on how they would respond if the market resumed attacks on the weaker nations that rely on the euro.

Something else I didn’t know: Germany, it seems, is the European country with the deepest pockets. As such, it is the obvious choice to bail out wayward counties. Yet the country seems understandably reluctant to rush to Greece’s aid and help the country remain solvent. This all sounds a little familiar, no? Greece, the European equivalent of Lehman Brothers, may seem to the Germans as undeserving of help but, potentially may be too vital to the overall symbolic structure of the Union to let fail. And if Greece is instead forced out of the union, any attempt at independent currency will likely collapse and the country will default on its debt, as it has in the past; its interest rates will soar; its public debts will become unfinanceable.

What will this do to all economically linked countries in the union? Or in the world?

I am reminded of a speech I read once, given by JFK at a breakfast in Fort Worth, TX, November 22, 1963.

“…we should realize what a burden and responsibility the people of the United States have borne for so many years. Here, a country which lived in isolation, divided and protected by the Atlantic and the Pacific, uninterested in the struggles of the world around it, here in the short space of 18 years after the Second World War, we put ourselves, by our own will and by necessity, into defense of alliances with countries all around the globe. Without the United States, South Viet-Nam would collapse overnight. Without the United States, the SEATO alliance would collapse overnight. Without the United States the CENTO alliance would collapse overnight. Without the United States there would be no NATO. And gradually Europe would drift into neutralism and indifference.”

Do Kennedy’s words still ring true? Without the United States, will the EU fail too?
I think not. Although, our interdependence is a growing economic and political reality, I don’t think this is America’s moment, I think its Germany’s. Amid my limited understanding of globalization resonates the knowledge that Greece is not a problem only for users of the Euro. Without Germany, Greece will certainly be devalued – but so would Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Holland and probably France: county’s integral to a working world economy. This may be Germany’s opportunity for redemption. It is a country that has lived in isolation, divided by walls of political differences. But it may be wise for Germany to use this spotlight, rescue the damsel-ed country in distressed, save the world economy from certain world depression and become the hero country I think it wants to be.